From Tripoli to Damascus

Good analysis from Gustavo Chacra, a Brazilian journalist from the newspaper "O Estado de Sao Paulo" (translation from Google, with some intervention....):


The rebels took Benghasi in a few days. The first UN resolution against Libya imposing sanctions, was approved in early March. At that time, the opposition controlled the whole eastern part of Libya, called Cyrenaica. Two weeks later, on March 17, when Gaddafi forces were near Benghasi, the main bastion of opposition, to crush once and for all the protests, the Security Council established the no-fly zone and opened the door to the NATO bombing - which were illegal in many cases for failing to respect the text of the UN. By the, a series of army and government officials had already abandoned Gaddafi. Still, it took another five month until his rule ended.
In Syria, Bashar al Assad's regime controls the entire territory, including Hama. There hasn't been one single crack in senior government or army. The opposition, although well armed, is unable to fight against a well trained and loyal army without NATO's help. So far, the UN has not approved even one resolution with sanctions and in the Security Council, the United States hasn't brought up thepossibility of military intervention.
Taking these factors into consideration, I wonder how long it fwill take for Assad to fall, considering that Gaddafi, who was in a much more adverse situation, lasted five months? Now pay attention, I wrote Assad, not the Baath regime ... Tomorrow, I delve more on this distinction.